5/20/2023 0 Comments 2018 midterm elections mapIn December 1924, Republicans held 25 seats that were up in the 1926 midterm election, and that party makeup remained the same up to Election Day. When we say “begun,” we mean the partisan makeup of the class up for election in December about two years prior to Election Day - where we are in the calendar right now. Only three times before in the era of popularly-elected senators has a party begun a midterm cycle as exposed as the Democrats are in 2018, and only once since World War II. Map 1: Senate seats up in 2018 midterm election (Senate Class 1) Going into 2012, it appeared that Democrats would lose seats, but they upset expectations and instead gained two, which is why they are so overextended now. Richard Shelby of Alabama and Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado from Democrat to Republican would essentially make it 10 by the time of Campbell’s switch in March 1995), Democrats made big gains in Class 1 in both 2000 (four) and 2006 (six). ![]() After Republicans netted eight seats on this map in the 1994 Republican Revolution (and party switches by Sens. Again, a look back at the last few times this group of seats was contested explains the Democrats’ exposure. Including the two independents who caucus with the Democrats, the party holds 25 of the Class I Senate seats that are up for election in 2018, while the Republicans hold only eight. But the GOP largely held the line and now hold a 22-12 advantage in this Senate class, which won’t be up for election again until 2022, which could be President Donald Trump’s second midterm election (although that’s of course a very long way off).Īlways looming over 2016, though, was the 2018 map. Bush’s reelection in 2004 (when they gained four). Republicans controlled 24 of 34 seats on a map where they had made substantial gains the last two times it had been contested, the GOP wave year of 2010 (when the Republicans gained six seats) and President George W. One of the big reasons why the Senate majority appeared in reach for the Democrats in 2016 was that the Republicans were, and still are, overexposed in Senate Class 3, the 34 seats that were up for election this past November. But given that for most of the cycle it looked like Clinton would win the White House and also deliver the Senate, the Democrats clearly did not realize their potential this year. Yes, the party did net an extra two seats by defeating Republican incumbents in Illinois and New Hampshire despite Hillary Clinton losing her bid for the presidency, so the next Senate will be 52-48 Republican. It’s hard to overstate how disappointing 2016 was for Democrats in the Senate. But it will be difficult for Democrats to make Senate gains in 2018: Despite being in the minority, they face a near-historic level of exposure in the group of Senate seats being contested in two years, Senate Class 1. The map includes district-by-district breakdowns that allow users to see how a shift in the national vote share could flip districts across the country.A potential silver lining for Democrats is that they head into the 2018 midterm as the party that does not hold the White House, and the “out” party typically makes gains down the ballot in midterms. Even if Democrats overcome these baked in handicaps, the distortive effect on our democracy still needs to be cured or many gains this year will evaporate in 2020. It shouldn’t require wave elections to bring about change.”īy moving a slider representing national vote share, this new interactive tool shows that even with a substantial lead in the total national vote, Democrats would just likely eke out just a slim majority in the House of Representatives. ![]() “Don’t be fooled by results on election night. “This shows at the district level just how much egregious map drawing distorts congressional elections and silences the voice of the people,” said the Brennan Center’s Michael Li. The Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law – in conjunction with Development Seed – today launched an interactive tool that shows how extreme partisan gerrymandering may distort democracy and blunt the public’s voice this November.īased on the Brennan Center’s landmark study from earlier this year, Extreme Gerrymandering & the 2018 Midterm, the map allows users to see how even with a landslide in the national vote, Democrats must overcome the gerrymandered firewall that has locked in a Republican advantage since the 2010 Tea Party surge. Attend the Brennan Legacy Awards Dinner.Advance Constitutional Change Show / hide.National Task Force on Democracy Reform & the Rule of Law.Government Targeting of Minority Communities Show / hide.Campaign Finance in the Courts Show / hide.Gerrymandering & Fair Representation Show / hide.Ensure Every American Can Vote Show / hide.
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